Forecast Accuracy

Forecast accuracy is the degree to which a marine weather forecast matches the conditions a vessel actually experiences, such as wind speed, wind direction, wave height, rain, pressure and timing of changes. At sea, accuracy is judged by how well the forecast supports safe navigation and realistic passage decisions.

For boaters, better forecast accuracy improves departure timing, sail selection, fuel planning, anchorage choice and avoidance of hazardous sea states. It should be considered alongside Forecast Confidence, the behaviour of each Forecast Model, and route outcomes from Weather Routing.

PredictWind helps assess accuracy by comparing leading models such as ECMWF, GFS and ICON, high-resolution 1km wind maps, observations, forecast tables and downloadable GRIB data in the Forecast and Offshore apps. No forecast is perfect, so prudent skippers monitor updates and maintain safe margins.